15.08.2008 09:35
Aug.15. In global petroleum market news, oil prices pulled back about a dollar Thursday as waning U.S. demand for energy overshadowed supply threats from the Russia-Georgia conflict. Crude fell as low as USD 112.59 a barrel as traders continued to ponder Wednesday's U.S. Energy Department report on weekly fuel inventories. The department's Energy Information Administration reported a bigger-than-expected decline in gasoline supplies but also said U.S. demand for refined fuel products continues to fall. Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell 99 cents to settle at USD 115.01 on NYMEX after alternating between positive and negative territory earlier in the day. In London, Brent crude for September delivery fell 83 cents to settle at USD 112.64 a barrel. A pullback was widely anticipated as traders sought to cash in on Wednesday's jump of almost USD 3 a barrel, which temporarily halted a month-long slide that took crude USD 35 below its July 11 high of USD 147.27. Nonetheless, traders were concerned about growing evidence that higher prices have stifled demand for fuel. Thursday's sell-off was tempered by ongoing tensions in the weeklong conflict between Russia and Georgia over two breakaway provinces. British oil company BP PLC said Thursday it has resumed pumping gas into the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline that runs through Georgia, but two oil pipelines remained closed. BP's Baku-Supsa oil pipeline was shut as a precaution, and the larger Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan line remains out of action after a fire earlier this month on the Turkish section of the line. In our opinion, buyers are still jittery about the Russia-Georgia conflict, knowing that it is not completely resolved and they are on the lookout for some geopolitical risk premium. Also pressuring oil prices Thursday was a stronger U.S. dollar vs. the euro. The greenback has been making a comeback lately on evidence that European economies are flagging. The euro was going for USD 1.4811 in afternoon trading, down from its level of USD 1.4934 in late trading Wednesday. We believe the higher dollar has shaved about USD 12 off the price of oil since mid-July. Since that time, the dollar is up 6.9%. As we have noted on many occasions, the price of oil tends to go up when the dollar is weak as investors move out of the currency and look to crude as a safe haven. Moving forward, we believe prices will remain in the doldrums until some hard data comes in to show that demand is improving. Given high inflation, as shown in yesterday’s U.S. CPI report, and the magnitude of the global credit crunch, it could take a few months until we see a recovery in the demand side of the global petroleum market equation.
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