13.08.2008 09:25
Aug.13. In global petroleum market news, oil prices continued to slide on Tuesday, dampened by a stronger U.S. dollar and more evidence that developed countries are cutting back on their energy use. Light, sweet crude dipped 75 cents to USD 113.70 a barrel on NYMEX, after falling as low as USD 112.31, a new three-month low. Oil is now trading about USD 35 below its July 11 high of USD 147.27. In London, Brent crude for September delivery fell by USD 1.10 to USD 111.57 a barrel. The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast on Tuesday for oil product demand from 30 developed countries, located mostly in Europe and North America, to 48.6 mn bpd, down 1.3% from last year. The Paris-based energy watchdog's report arrived a day after China said its crude imports in July, while historically strong, were down 7% from the same month last year. The IEA cautioned that it is too early to determine whether the recent fall in oil prices is a longer-term trend. It said demand in developing countries could offset declines in developed nations, and that it sees Chinese oil demand continuing to grow at a robust pace. We would also like to note that a stronger dollar weighed on oil prices yesterday. The euro traded at USD 1.4898, down from USD 1.4928 late Monday in New York and at its lowest levels since February. Meanwhile, traders continued to watch the conflict between Russia and Georgia, trying to figure out whether the conflict will result in a serious oil supply disruption. Russia ordered a halt to military action in Georgia on Tuesday and set out its 6-point plan for lasting peace in the region. In other news, BP said Tuesday it shut down the 90,000-bpd oil pipeline running from Baku on the Caspian Sea to Supsa on Georgia's Black Sea coast earlier. The London-based oil company emphasized, however, that the move was precautionary. Another larger pipeline operated by BP in the former Soviet Republic is already out of action after a fire last week on its Turkish stretch. A third pipeline in Georgia that BP uses to export oil, but does not operate, remains open. Sizing up the current global petroleum market trend and moving forward, we believe that the market is still focused on demand destruction and a longer-than-expected slump in the US economy. This has led to heavy liquidation of long positions by large hedge funds. As a result, we could see WTI and Brent stabilize in the range of USD 100-110.
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