On April 10, there were a number of media reports about the forthcoming implementation of the scheme for transfer of Rosgazifikatsiya's share in Gazprom's equity capital (0.89%) to Rosneftegaz, which already holds 10.74% in the gas monopoly. Within the scheme implementation, Gazprom is likely to buy out its own shares from Rosgazifikatsiya at the current market price of USD 2.78 bn. Gazprom would further exchange the bought out package for state share packages in 70-80 regional gas distribution companies and for state-owned stakes in Kamchatgazprom and Daltransgaz. Thus, if the state represented by Rosneftegaz is not willing to pay in excess during the exchange, the aggregate value of the state-owned assets should roughly equal to the value of 0.89% of Gazprom's shares, or USD 2.78 bn.
Conclusions:
1. Among potential beneficiaries of this exchange, we point at shares of regional gas distribution companies that hold stakes in Rosgazifikatsiya's charter capital. In accordance with the proposed scheme, the company is to receive USD 2.8 bn on its balance in exchange for the stake in Gazprom. There was a risk that, with account for the state's majority share in Rosgazifikatsiya, this package would be transferred or sold on quite non-market conditions. However, this risk has been considerably reduced. The value of Rosgazifikatsiya's share package owned by the regional gas distribution companies listed in the table below is sometimes comparable to the value of the company's core business.
| Company | Capitalization, USD mn | Share in Rosgazifikatsiya's charter capital |
|---|
| Stavropolkraigaz | 113 | 2.16% |
| Krasnodarkraigaz | 58 | 1.18% |
| Voronezhoblgaz | 82 | 0.98% |
| Lipetskoblgaz | - | 0.78% |
| Kurskgaz | 27 | 0.78% |
| Ryazanoblgaz | 49 | 0.41% |
2. As for other potential beneficiaries, we point at regional gas distribution companies whose state share packages directly participate in the exchange between Gazprom and Rosneftegaz. In order not pay in excess for Gazprom's share package, the state authorities should rate their share in gas distribution assets highly. High valuation of regional gas distribution companies may become a certain guideline for the investors. The full list of regional distributions whose shares are to participate in the exchange has not been disclosed yet. Nonetheless, in line with out estimates, it is likely to include the largest gas distribution companies, like Bryanskoblgaz, Nizhegorodoblgaz, Orenburgoblgaz, Kurskgaz, and Lipetskoblgaz.
0.244
0.616
